A new Hellenthal and Associates poll has found a strong lead for Mark Begich in his race against Sen. Ted Stevens
Mark Begich 51 percent
Ted Stevens 44 percent
The poll also has a lot of House numbers. In a (possible) race against Rep. Don Young, Ethan Berkowitz crushes the 17-term incumbent by a wide margin
Ethan Berkowtiz 58 percent
Don Young 38 percent
Before you start celebrating, however, the poll also breaks down a Berkowitz-Parnell match-up
Ethan Berkowitz 38 percent
Sean Parnell 43 percent
This is the first public poll of a Berkowitz-Parnell match-up, and it gives the Alaska LG a five-point lead, just as many of us feared. Still, being down 43-to-38 is not awful and the race would still be winnable for Berkowitz. I think it would be close, but an uphill fight, particularly is Parnell gains more momentum over the summer.
Finally, the poll appears to be first public poll to hit the GOP primary:
Sean Parnell 37 percent
Don Young 34 percent
Gabrielli LeDoux 8 percent
Indeed, Don Young is in serious trouble, and I see Parnell winning going away, particularly since State Rep. LeDoux is doing so poorly in splitting the anti-Young vote.
I have never heard of this pollster, but if accurate, this is more great news for us in Alaska, with Begich looking great and Berkowitz looking competitive against Parnell.
http://newsminer.com/news/2008…
Poll: Begich has edge on Stevens
Published Monday, June 9, 2008
WASHINGTON – A recent poll shows Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading incumbent Ted Stevens in the U.S. Senate race.
The survey found 51 percent of those responding would vote for Begich in November’s general election, compared to 44 percent who said they would back Stevens.
The poll indicates Begich is gaining name recognition across the state, but Stevens, who’s served in the Senate since 1968, also remains popular.
Some 58 percent of responders said they felt very or somewhat positive toward Begich, while only 16 percent had a negative opinion of the 45-year-old Democratic mayor. Eleven percent of those responding didn’t know of Begich.
For Stevens, the numbers were a little closer – 49 percent had a positive opinion, while 40 percent had a negative opinion. All of the survey’s 269 responders knew Stevens was the state’s senior senator.
Stevens’ bid to win a seventh full term in the Senate has been overshadowed by an ongoing corruption investigation by the U.S. Justice Department. Stevens has not been charged with any wrongdoing.
High name recognition may partially explain why the poll shows Stevens beating challenger Dave Cuddy by 15 percentage points in the Republican primary. More than 42 percent of poll participants said they had no idea who Cuddy was.
The poll did not ask about the Democratic primary, in which Begich faces Ray Metcalfe, founder of the Moderate Republican Party, and Frank Vondersaar. It also did not contain questions about the other seven long-shot candidates who hope to serve as Alaska’s next senator.
Half of those responding to the survey had no party affiliation or were registered Independents. Registered Republicans made up 27 percent of respondents; Democrats made up 22 percent.
The poll was conducted between May 6 and May 10 by Anchorage firm Hellenthal and Associates. It has a 6 percent margin of error.
The survey was paid for by Sam Kito, a lobbyist whose clients include the North Slope Borough.
House race
In the U.S. House race, nearly 42 percent of respondents said they would vote for former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz in the Democratic primary, compared to 30 percent who said they preferred Diane Benson. Nearly 29 percent said they were still undecided.
In the general election, Berkowitz would beat Young by a wide margin, 58 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll.
However, a matchup between Berkowitz and Republican Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell would likely go to Parnell, who received 43 percent to Berkowitz’ 38 percent in the survey.
Some 41 percent of those taking the poll had a positive opinion of Berkowitz, while only 13 percent noted a negative opinion. Twenty-six percent said they were neutral on the question of how they felt about Berkowitz, while nearly 21 percent had no idea who he was. Parnell and Benson had similar numbers in the unknown column.
Benson’s positives were 35 percent, compared to 12 percent who said they had a negative opinion of her. More than 25 percent said they had not made up their mind about her.
Parnell has a slim lead on incumbent Don Young (37 percent to 34 percent) in the GOP primary, though it’s still within the margin of error. Kodiak state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux was a distant third with just 8 percent of the vote. Some 15 percent of those responding said they were still undecided.
Nearly 46 percent of those asked had a positive opinion of Parnell. Only 8 percent said they had a negative opinion and 25 percent said they had a no opinion.
Young, whose close ties to lobbyists have prompted federal investigators to take a closer look at his activities, had more lopsided results: 35 percent positive, 52 percent negative, 13 percent undecided. Young denies any wrongdoing and has not been charged with a crime.
The poll found 12 percent of those asked had a positive opinion of Republican state representative LeDoux, while 10 percent had a negative opinion and 27 percent were undecided. More than half of the respondents did not recognize LeDoux’s name.
The poll did not contain questions about Frank Frost of Anchorage and Don Wright of Kenai, who have filed to run in the House race under the Alaska Independence Party banner.
The House and Senate primary elections are Aug. 26.